Hurricane Ian to make landfall around Tampa tomorrow and then moving north

Iam has made landfall over Western Cuba. The forecast track has shifted east again, now Florida landfall near Tampa as a Major Hurricane overnight Wednesday night, and slowly tracking up the center of Florida into Georgia. 

Mandatory evacuations are in place for parts of at least three counties in and around Tampa, Florida, as Hurricane Ian approaches. The National Weather Service warns of “a risk of a life-threatening storm surge, hurricane-force winds, and heavy rain along the west coast [and] Panhandle” of Florida by mid-week. Orlando, Tallahassee and Jacksonville also are expected to see at least tropical storm-force winds. The storm passed through Cuba and soaked Miami last night. The forecast shows “an unprecedented rate of strengthening from a tropical storm to a powerful hurricane,” CNN meteorologist Brandon Miller said. Winds of 111 miles per hour or more are expected by the time it hits Florida’s west coast.

Hurricane Ian Advisory Number 17

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022

500 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE IAN MOVING OVER WESTERN CUBA...

...SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS OCCURRING OVER WESTERN

CUBA...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...22.3N 83.7W

ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM S OF THE CITY OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA

ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning has been extended southward along the west

coast of Florida to Bonita Beach

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Middle Florida

Keys from the Channel 5 Bridge westward to the Seven Mile Bridge.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the west coast of

Florida from the Anclote River northward to the Suwannee River.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued along the east coast of

Florida from Jupiter Inlet to the Volusia/Brevard County Line

including Lake Okeechobee.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for southeast coast of

Florida from Deerfield Beach northward to Jupiter Inlet.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa

* Bonita Beach to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay

* Dry Tortugas

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...

* Anclote River southward to Flamingo

* Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas

* Lower Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge westward to Key West

* Flamingo to Bonita Beach

* Suwannee River to the Anclote River

* Volusia/Brevard County Line south to Jupiter Inlet

* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to Key West

* Dry Tortugas

* Florida Bay

* Aucilla River to Anclote River

* Altamaha Sound to Flagler/Volusia County Line

* Saint Johns River

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* North of Anclote River to the Suwannee River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* North of the Suwannee River to Indian Pass

* Altamaha Sound to Volusia/Brevard County line

* Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and

property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening

inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in

the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please

see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,

available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.

Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions

to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for

other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other

instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-

threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the

coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather

Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible

within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours

before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force

winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or

dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in central Cuba, the remainder of the Florida Keys, and

the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Ian.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor

products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ian was located

near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 83.7 West. Ian is moving toward

the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to

continue today. A turn toward the north-northeast with a reduction

in forward speed is forecast tonight and Wednesday. On the

forecast track, the center of Ian is expected to move over western

Cuba during the next few hours. Ian will then emerge over the

southeastern Gulf of Mexico later this morning, pass west of the

Florida Keys later today, and approach the west coast of Florida

within the hurricane warning area on Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher

gusts. Ian is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson

Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected while

Ian moves over Cuba. Strengthening is expected later this

morning after Ian emerges over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

Ian is forecast to approach the west coast of Florida has a major

hurricane.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the

center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles

(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion

under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the

web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause

normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters

moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the

following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if

the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* Anclote River to Middle of Longboat Key, FL including Tampa

Bay...5-10 ft

* Suwannee River to Anclote River...5-8 ft

* Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...5-8 ft

* Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL including Charlotte Harbor...

4-7 ft

* Bonita Beach, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...3-5 ft

* Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Altamaha Sound including

St. Johns River...2-4 ft

* East Cape Sable, FL to Card Sound Bridge, FL including Florida

Bay...2-4 ft

* Aucilla River to Suwannee River...2-4 ft

* Florida Keys including the Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft

* Indian Pass, FL to Aucilla River...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to

the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by

large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing

of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short

distances. For information specific to your area, please see

products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast

office.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 9 to 14 feet

above normal tide levels along the coast of western Cuba in areas of

onshore winds in the hurricane warning area early today.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area in

Cuba through this morning. Destructive winds are expected where the

core of Ian moves across western Cuba. Tropical storm conditions

are expected within the tropical storm warning area in Cuba today.

Hurricane conditions are expected along the west coast of Florida

within the Hurricane Warning area on Wednesday morning, with

tropical storm conditions possibly beginning by late today. Tropical

storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area

along the southwest coast of the Florida peninsula by this evening,

and along the west coast north of the Tampa Bay area and along

portions of the east coast of Florida on Wednesday. Hurricane

conditions are possible in the watch area beginning on Wednesday,

and tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm

Watch area on Wednesday into early Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the

lower and middle Florida Keys beginning later today.

RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall through

Thursday night:

* Western Cuba: 6 to 12 inches, with local maxima up to 16

inches. These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in

areas of higher terrain over western Cuba.

* Florida Keys and South Florida: 4 to 6 inches, with local

maxima up to 8 inches

* Central West Florida: 12 to 16 inches, with local maxima up to

24 inches.

* Northeast Florida and the remainder of the Central Florida

Peninsula: 5 to 10 inches, with local amounts up to 12 inches.

Heavy rainfall is expected to affect the Southeast Friday and

Saturday.

Widespread considerable flash and urban flooding are expected

mid-to-late week across central and northern Florida, southern

Georgia, and coastal South Carolina, with significant, prolonged

river flooding expected across central to northern Florida. Flash

and urban flooding are also expected with rainfall across southern

Florida through mid week. Limited flash and river flooding is

expected over portions of the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic

mid-to-late week.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible today through Wednesday across

the Florida Keys and the southern and central Florida Peninsula.


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