Georgia & South Carolina Impacts
We have multiple tropical alerts through the Coastal Empire and Lowcountry. Our entire area is under a tropical warning and a hurricane watch has been issued for Jeff Davis County as hurricane conditions are possible tonight. Helene is expected to maintain hurricane strength through south Georgia.
Helene is expected to bring big impacts us locally Thursday and into Friday. The magnitude of what we experience will depend on how large the system becomes over the Gulf, how strong it becomes, and the path it takes.
The main impacts we may experience locally will be damaging wind, heavy rain, localized inland flooding, coastal storm surge/tidal flooding and isolated tornadoes. Sustained wind will be in excess of 39 mph, though wind gusts will be on excess of 50-60 mph for most of us. Some inland areas may experience wind gusts 55-70+ mph.
Rain will increase in outer rain bands Thursday. As Helene makes landfall Thursday evening, rain will pick up with tropical downpours likely into Friday morning. The strongest wind will arrive Thursday night into early Friday morning as the center of Helene passes to our west. During this time, we will see our chance for isolated fast tracking tornadoes increase.
This system is expected to be a greater wind event than what we had with Debby as it moved though the region. What will be Helene is forecast to be a fast-moving system, so there will be less time the main core of wind to weaken before it moves in late Thursday.
Strong winds and heavy rain will lead to power outages becoming likely for many locations.
The City of Savannah declared a state of local emergency ahead of Hurricane Helene.
Mayor Van Johnson, in coordination with other municipalities, declared a state of local emergency in Savannah effective noon yesterday.
The City says they will provide residents and businesses with sand and sandbags ahead of the forecasted rainfall.
City crews have already begun preparation for the storm, clearing storm drains and catch basins and providing additional maintenance to storm water systems, according to a release from the City. The City says they do not anticipate any major interruptions to sanitation services at this time.
South Carolina Governor Henry McMaster declared a State of Emergency Emergency in preparation for the potential effects of Hurricane Helene.
The governor is asking asks South Carolinians to monitor local forecasts and begin taking proper precautions.
The declaration activates the South Carolina Emergency Operations Plan and directs the South Carolina Emergency Management Division to coordinate with all relevant state agencies in preparation for potential requests for state assistance from local officials and county emergency management leaders.
The important thing to know about OUR area: we will start to feel the effects of the storm as the day progresses, but the greatest impact will be overnight in both the Lowcountry and Coastal Empire. Closer to the coast wind gusts will be 40-60mph but inland gusts will be stronger. As for rain 2-4 inches, but this is a wind event and not a rain event. Overnight winds will intensify along with heavy rain bands but the real danger is the chance of isolated tornadoes.
Be sure you have a way to receive alerts and notifications AND that your devices are fully charged now before any possible power outages. And if your phone is set to "do not disturb," change that so that you can get urgent notifications if necessary!
Hurricane Helene Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
400 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024
...HELENE STRENGTHENING AND EXPECTED TO BRING CATASTROPHIC WINDS
AND STORM SURGE TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...
...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION...
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.2N 86.2W
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 385 MI...625 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mexico Beach eastward and southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Charlotte Harbor
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Mexico Beach
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Englewood to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Florida Keys, including the Dry Tortugas
* Flamingo to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* West of Mexico Beach to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
* Flamingo northward to Little River Inlet
* Lake Okeechobee
* Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Helene was located
near latitude 24.2 North, longitude 86.2 West. Helene is moving
toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general
motion is expected to continued with a significant increase in
forward speed during the next 24 hours. On the forecast track,
Helene will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico today and cross
the Florida Big Bend coast this evening or early Friday morning.
After landfall, Helene is expected to turn northwestward and slow
down over the Tennessee Valley on Friday and Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Helene is
expected to be a major hurricane when it reaches the Florida Big
Bend coast this evening. Weakening is expected after landfall, but
Helene's fast forward speed will allow strong, damaging winds,
especially in gusts, to penetrate well inland across the
southeastern United States, including over the higher terrain of
the southern Appalachians.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles
(555 km). The Key West Naval Air Station recently reported
sustained winds of 41 mph (66 km/h) and a wind gust of 64 mph
(103 km/h).
The estimated minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 966 mb (28.53 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Helene can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml
STORM SURGE: The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and
the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded
by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Carrabelle, FL to Suwannee River, FL...15-20 ft
Apalachicola, FL to Carrabelle, FL...10-15 ft
Suwannee River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...10-15 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...8-12 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Apalachicola, FL...6-10 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...5-8 ft
Tampa Bay...5-8 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...4-7 ft
East of Mexico Beach, FL to Indian Pass, FL...3-5 ft
Englewood, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Charlotte Harbor...3-5 ft
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.
Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern
coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the U.S. hurricane
warning area late today, with tropical storm conditions beginning
this morning. Tropical storm conditions are spreading across the
Florida Keys at this time, and they are expected to spread
northward across the rest of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina
through tonight.
Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the warning
area in western Cuba during the next few hours.
RAINFALL: Hurricane Helene is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba, the Cayman Islands
and the northeast Yucatan Peninsula, with isolated totals around 12
inches. This rainfall brings a risk of considerable flooding.
Over portions of the Southeastern U.S. into the Southern
Appalachians, Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 6 to 12 inches with isolated totals around 18 inches. This
rainfall will likely result in catastrophic and potentially
life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with significant
river flooding. Numerous landslides are expected in steep terrain
across the southern Appalachians.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Helene, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.
TORNADOES: The risk for several tornadoes will gradually increase
today through tonight. The greatest threat is expected from parts of
northern Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low
Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina.
SURF: Swells generated by Helene will affect the southern coast of
Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of
days. Swells will spread northward toward the west coast of Florida
and the northeastern Gulf Coast today. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.