Most models suggest Dorian could stay just off the Florida coast and eventually target coastal South Carolina late this week.
But there's still alot of uncertainty. Landfall is still possible anywhere along the east coast of Florida and points north. At category 4 it is capable of causing major damae to homes, uprooting trees, causing power outages, and worse. Forecasts show it could move northward along the Florida coast but landfall is still not out of the question.
The storm's path after landfall has moved easterly to the southeast coast and we should hope and pray it continues to move easterly without landfall.
Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 28A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
800 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS DORIAN STRONGER
AND MOVING WESTWARD...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Andros Island
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Interests in southern and central Florida should continue to monitor
the progress of Dorian. Watches may be required for portions of the
east coast of Florida later today.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Dorian
was located near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 73.0 West. Dorian is
now moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A slower westward
motion should continue into early next week. On this track, the
core of Dorian should move over the Atlantic well north of the
southeastern and central Bahamas today, be near or over the
northwestern Bahamas on Sunday, and be near the Florida east coast
Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that the maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 145 mph (225 km/h) with
higher gusts. Dorian is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-
Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. While some fluctuations in intensity
are possible, but Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane
during the next few days.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).
The latest minimum central pressure just reported by a NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft was 944 mb (27.88 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area across the northwestern Bahamas by Sunday, with tropical storm
winds beginning tonight.
STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast, the surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations this weekend into the middle of next week:
Northwestern Bahamas...10 to 15 inches, isolated 25 inches.
Coastal sections of the southeast United States...6 to 12 inches,
isolated 18 inches.
Central Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.
This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.
SURF: Swells will begin affect the east-facing shores of the
Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and the southeastern United
States coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.