As Dorian's forecast shifts, the Carolinas And Georgia come into play

Most models suggest Dorian could stay just off the Florida coast and eventually target coastal South Carolina late this week.

But there's still alot of uncertainty. Landfall is still possible anywhere along the east coast of Florida and points north. At category 4 it is capable of causing major damae to homes, uprooting trees, causing power outages, and worse. Forecasts show it could move northward along the Florida coast but landfall is still not out of the question.

The storm's path after landfall has moved easterly to the southeast coast and we should hope and pray it continues to move easterly without landfall.

BULLETIN

Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 28A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019

800 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS DORIAN STRONGER

AND MOVING WESTWARD...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...25.8N 73.0W

ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA

ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* Andros Island

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued

36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-

force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or

dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be

rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible

within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before

the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,

conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests in southern and central Florida should continue to monitor

the progress of Dorian. Watches may be required for portions of the

east coast of Florida later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products

issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Dorian

was located near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 73.0 West. Dorian is

now moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A slower westward

motion should continue into early next week. On this track, the

core of Dorian should move over the Atlantic well north of the

southeastern and central Bahamas today, be near or over the

northwestern Bahamas on Sunday, and be near the Florida east coast

late Monday.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that the maximum

sustained winds have increased to near 145 mph (225 km/h) with

higher gusts. Dorian is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-

Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. While some fluctuations in intensity

are possible, but Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane

during the next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from

the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105

miles (165 km).

The latest minimum central pressure just reported by a NOAA

Hurricane Hunter aircraft was 944 mb (27.88 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning

area across the northwestern Bahamas by Sunday, with tropical storm

winds beginning tonight.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels

by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of

onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast, the surge

will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall

accumulations this weekend into the middle of next week:

Northwestern Bahamas...10 to 15 inches, isolated 25 inches.

Coastal sections of the southeast United States...6 to 12 inches,

isolated 18 inches.

Central Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Swells will begin affect the east-facing shores of the

Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and the southeastern United

States coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to

cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please

consult products from your local weather office.

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