Mark Robertson

Mark Robertson

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Hurricane Ian speed increases, All of Georgia and SC are in the Cone

The National Hurricane Center forecasts that Ian's track will parallel the Florida Gulf Coast and will get slower once he passes the Keys. Once we get landfall into Florida, Ian will slow down and take more of a northjbound movement into Georgia bringing the threat of heavy rain and gusty winds to Central and North Georgia towards the end of the week.

Right now:

IAN stats: 80 mph winds, 100 miles west of Grand Cayman, 240 miles SE of the western tip of Cuba, moving NW at 13 mph, pressure 980 mph. There are new Tropical Storm WATCHES for the West Florida Coast, the middle Florida Keys and Lake Okeechobee. Expect some watches to be upgraded later today.

Note the cone into Georgia is still very wide, now includes all of South Carolina and portions of North Carolina, Tennessee and Alabama but the cone will shrink as we go through the week.

Also note how SLOW the Hurricane will be moving once it passes Tampa. IAN is now expected to be a strong Tropical Storm at landfall Friday morning, and a Depression Saturday morning over Middle Georgia.  There is still lots of uncertainty.

And while all of Florida will be impacted, local utilities expecting power failure, even some transmission lines, Georgia is expected to have less impact on Saturday.

Hurricane Ian Advisory Number 14

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022

1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022

...IAN FORECAST TO CONTINUE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING...

...CONDITIONS IN WESTERN CUBA TO DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AND

TONIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS EXPECTED...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...19.1N 82.7W

ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM W OF GRAND CAYMAN

ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch for the west coast of Florida has been

extended from Chokoloskee southward to Flamingo.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Florida Keys from

Seven Mile Bridge eastward to the Channel 5 Bridge in the Middle

Keys.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Lake Okeechobee.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Grand Cayman

* Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas

* Lower Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge westward to Key West

* Dry Tortugas

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to Key West

* Dry Tortugas

* Florida Bay

* Anclote River southward to the Card Sound Bridge

* Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* Englewood to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* Little Cayman and Cayman Brac

* Englewood southward to Flamingo

* Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5 Bridge

* Lake Okeechobee

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 to

36 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be

rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-

threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the

coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather

Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible

within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours

before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force

winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or

dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in central Cuba, the remainder of the Florida Keys, and

the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Ian. Additional

watches may be need later today farther north along the west coast

of Florida.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor

products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ian was located

near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 82.7 West. Ian is moving toward

the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A north-northwestward motion is

expected to begin later today, followed by a northward motion on

Tuesday with a slightly slower forward speed. A turn toward the

north-northeast with a further reduction in forward speed is

forecast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ian is

expected to pass near or west of the Cayman Islands today, and near

or over western Cuba tonight and early Tuesday. Ian will then emerge

over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, pass west of the

Florida Keys late Tuesday, and approach the west coast of Florida on

Wednesday into Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)

with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is expected during the next

day or so, and Ian is forecast to become a major hurricane tonight

or early Tuesday when it is near western Cuba and remain a major

hurricane over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the

center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles

(185 km).

The minimum central pressure based on Air Force and NOAA Hurricane

Hunter aircraft data is 980 mb (28.94 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion

under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the

web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will

cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising

waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the

following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if

the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

*Anclote River to Middle of Longboat Key, FL including Tampa

Bay...5-10 ft

*Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...5-8 ft

*Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL including Charlotte Harbor...

4-7 ft

*Bonita Beach, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...3-5 ft

*East Cape Sable, FL to Card Sound Bridge, FL including Florida

Bay...2-4 ft

*Florida Keys including the Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to

the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by

large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing

of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short

distances. For information specific to your area, please see

products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast

office.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 9 to 14 feet

above normal tide levels along the coast of western Cuba in areas of

onshore winds in the hurricane warning area tonight and early

Tuesday.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above

normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore

winds in the Cayman Islands today.

WIND: Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are expected on Grand

Cayman today. Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning

area in Cuba tonight, with tropical storm conditions expected

by late today. Destructive winds are possible where the core of Ida

moves across western Cuba.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm

warning area in Cuba tonight and Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions

are possible on Little Cayman and Cayman Brac today.

Hurricane conditions are possible along the west coast of Florida

within the Hurricane Watch area on Wednesday, with tropical

storm conditions possibly beginning by Tuesday night.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the

lower Florida Keys and are possible in the watch area in the middle

Florida Keys on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible

within the watch area along the Florida west coast by Tuesday

evening.

RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall through

Thursday:

Jamaica: An additional 1 to 3 inches, with local maximum of 5

inches, especially along the south coastal region.

Cayman Islands: 3 to 6 inches, with local maxima up to 8 inches.

Western Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with local maxima up to 16 inches.

These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of

higher terrain over western Cuba.

Florida Keys: 4 to 6 inches.

Central West Florida: 8 to 10 inches, with local maxima up to 15

inches.

Remainder of the Florida Peninsula: 3 to 8 inches.

Heavy rainfall is expected to affect North Florida, eastern portions

of the Florida Panhandle, and portions of the Southeastern U.S.

Friday and Saturday.

Widespread considerable flash and urban flooding and prolonged

significant river flooding impacts are likely mid-to-late week in

central Florida given already saturated conditions. Flash and urban

flooding impacts are also possible with rainfall across the Florida

Keys and the Florida peninsula through mid-week. Limited flooding

impacts and rises on area streams and rivers are also possible over

northern Florida and portions of the Southeast mid-to-late week.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible late tonight and Tuesday

across the Florida Keys and the southern and central Florida

Peninsula.


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