Mark Robertson

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Hurricane Ian sets his sites on Myrtle Beach but we're not out of the woods

Looking at the 5:00 information it's clear the storm has moved even further east which is good news for us but not for Myrtle Beach.

BULLETIN

Hurricane Ian Advisory Number 31

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022

500 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022

...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED

ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON...

...FLOODING RAINS LIKELY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN

VIRGINIA...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...30.8N 79.1W

ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA

ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM SSW OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Altamaha

Sound, Georgia.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...

* Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida to Cape Fear North Carolina

* Neuse River North Carolina

* St. Johns River Florida

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Savannah River to Cape Fear North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Altamaha Sound Georgia to Savannah River

* Cape Fear to Duck North Carolina

* Pamlico Sound

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* North of Cape Fear to Duck North Carolina

* Pamlico River

* Cape Fear River

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* East of Cape Fear to Surf City North Carolina

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening

inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in

the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please

see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,

available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.

Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions

to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for

other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other

instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life

and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-

threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the

coastline, in the indicated locations.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible

within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible

inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your

local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ian was located

near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 79.1 West. Ian is moving toward

the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the north

with an increase in forward speed is expected this morning,

followed by a turn toward the north-northwest by tonight. On the

forecast track, the center of Ian will approach and reach the coast

of South Carolina today, and then move farther inland across

eastern South Carolina and central North Carolina tonight and

Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher

gusts. Little change in strength is expected before Ian reaches

the coast later today. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall,

and Ian is forecast to become an extratropical low over North

Carolina tonight or on Saturday. The low is then expected to

dissipate by Saturday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from

the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 485

miles (780 km). A sustained wind of 38 mph (61 km/h) and a gust

to 52 mph (83 km/h) were recently reported at the Hilton Head

Airport in South Carolina. An elevated WeatherFlow station at the

Winyah Bay Range Light in South Carolina measured a sustained wind

of 49 mph (80 km/h) and a gust to 71 mph (115 km/h) during the past

couple of hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion

under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the

web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause

normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters

moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the

following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if

the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

* Edisto Beach to Little River Inlet...4-7 ft

* Little River Inlet to Cape Fear...3-5 ft

* Savannah River to Edisto Beach...3-5 ft

* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Savannah River...2-4 ft

* Cape Fear River...2-4 ft

* St. Johns River...2-4 ft

* East of Cape Fear to Duck, including Pamlico and Neuse

Rivers...2-4 ft

* Patrick Air Force Base to Flagler/Volusia County Line... 1-3 ft

* Albemarle Sound...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to

the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by

large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing

of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short

distances. For information specific to your area, please see

products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast

office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in parts of the

warning areas on the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas, and

hurricane conditions are expected to begin in the Hurricane Warning

area in South Carolina and southeastern North Carolina by this

afternoon. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane

Watch area in North Carolina by this afternoon.

RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following storm total

rainfall:

* Northeast South Carolina: 4 to 8 inches, with local maxima of 12

inches.

* Central South Carolina, North Carolina, and southern Virginia:

3 to 6 inches with local maxima of 8 inches across northwest North

Carolina and southwest Virginia.

Major to record river flooding will continue across central Florida

through next week. Considerable flash and urban flooding, and minor

river flooding is possible across coastal and northeast South

Carolina today. Locally considerable flash, urban, and small stream

flooding is possible today into Saturday across portions of

northwest North Carolina and southwest Virginia. Limited flooding is

possible across portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic this weekend.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this afternoon and evening

across eastern North Carolina, shifting northward into southeast

Virginia overnight through early Saturday morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Ian and a nearby frontal system are

affecting the east coast of Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas, and the

northwestern Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause

life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult

products from your local weather office. Swells will subside along

the northern coast of Cuba and the northeastern coast of the Yucatan

peninsula today.


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