The National Hurricane Center has declared Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine to be tropical enough to be named Tropical Storm Helene. By this time tomorrow it should be a hurricane, and is expected to be a Category Three at landfall.
The latest forecast track isn't too much different from 5am, the storm is a bit larger and the economic impact estimates are creeping up as the storm is expected to cause more damage to both the Tampa area as well as Tallahassee, south Georgia, and given the speed and landfall size, probably well in to Georgia with impacts reaching the Atlanta area.
Right on the coast it will be blustery, and some shallow coastal flooding from the GA/FL border to the Low Country can't be ruled out. Further inland, from a line from August to Waycross, things look increasingly messy with the potential for higher winds and tornadoes. By tomorrow at this time we should have a better picture on timing and details.
Tropical Storm Helene Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024
...TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS
OF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 84.3W
ABOUT 180 MI...295 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Lower Florida Keys
west of the Seven Mile Bridge and for the Dry Tortugas.
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Middle Florida Keys
from the Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5 Bridge.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Indian Pass southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Charlotte Harbor
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
* Englewood to Indian Pass
* Tampa Bay
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dry Tortugas
* Lower Florida Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge
* Grand Cayman
* Rio Lagartos to Tulum, Mexico
* Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Middle Florida Keys from the Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5
Bridge
* Flamingo to south of Englewood
* West of Indian Pass to Walton Bay County line
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Wind and storm surge warnings will likely be required for the
U.S. later today.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was
located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 84.3 West. Helene is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through early Wednesday. A
northward to north-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed
is expected on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the
center of Helene will move across the far northwestern Caribbean
Sea through tonight, and then move across the eastern Gulf of
Mexico Wednesday and Thursday, potentially reaching the Gulf coast
of Florida late Thursday.
Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the system has acquired a well-defined center of circulation,
and maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and
Helene is expected to become a hurricane on Wednesday. Continued
strengthening is anticipated after that time, and Helene could
become a major hurricane on Thursday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
to the east of the center.
Data from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the minimum
central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).