For coastal Georgia, from south to north, the Brunswick area might see close to tropical storm conditions depending on the exact trajectory offshore, and how distorted the wind field gets from the transition to extratropical storm characteristics. Moving north the threat and the wind impacts will decrease. Savannah and inland coastal infrastructure is still fragile from Helene, so even winds 20 mph gusting to 35 mph (both GFS and ECM show about that at the surface, higher out on the water and Islands somewhat) may cause some power outages; inland winds should be less. So on this track and forecast, Thursday morning from before dawn to noon will probably be gusty and rain, but at least it will be daylight for most of the storm. The one newish twist is that the timing of the tides and onshore winds is such that the high tides Thursday afternoon at 2pm seem likely to exceed the "moderate" flood levels, forecast at 10.2 ft at the Ft. Pulaski gauge (two to three feet above normal, which is about 8ft). That's well under the Matthew/Irma levels that exceeded 12 feet, but can still cause problems and borderline "major" criteria. So it does look like some shallow coastal flooding is on the way. From the NWS guidance: At 9.5 ft, minor coastal flooding occurs. Flooding will begin to impact Shipyard Road to Burnside Island. Parts of Ft Pulaski National Monument will begin to flood, including several trails. Flooding will also begin to impact Tybee Island including Catalina Dr and Lewis Ave. In Bryan County, water could breach docks near Ft McAllister and flooding will impact portions of Mill Hill Rd. In Liberty County, flooding impacts the Halfmoon Landing area and Cattle Hammock Rd near Bermuda Bluff subdivision. At 10.0 ft MLLW, moderate coastal flooding occurs. Shipyard Rd will be impassable, isolating residents on Burnside Island. Water will start to encroach on HW-80 and as the tide gets closer to 10.5 ft MLLW, could begin to cover portions of the roadway. Flooding will expand on Tybee Island and Catalina Dr and Lewis Ave will be impassable. Flooding will also impact Wilmington Island, the Coffee Bluff community, Ossabaw Island, Sapelo Island, and portions of HW-17 south of Darien. At 10.5 ft MLLW, major coastal flooding occurs. Damaging flooding is expected, expanding along the entire southeast Georgia coast. Flooding will likely cause the closure of HW-80, isolating residents on Tybee Island. Several other island communities will also likely become isolated due to flooded and impassable roadways. On Tybee Island, widespread significant flooding is expected with numerous properties impacted. Brunswick should expect tides to run 3-4 ft above normal, HHI to Hunting Island like Savannah at 2-3 ft. It all depends on how extensive Milton's wind field is after it crosses Florida.
Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
400 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024
...EXTREMELY POWERFUL HURRICANE MILTON JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...
...MILTON POSES AN EXTREMELY SERIOUS THREAT TO FLORIDA AND
RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO FOLLOW THE ORDERS OF LOCAL OFFICIALS...
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 88.9W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM NE OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 560 MI...905 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...924 MB...27.29 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to the Suwannee
River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Celestun to Rio Lagartos
* Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the
Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Sebastian Inlet to Edisto Beach, including St. Johns River
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche
* Campeche to south of Celestun
* Dry Tortugas
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Indian River County Line
northward to the mouth of the St. Marys River
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Rio Lagartos to Cancun
* Campeche to south of Celestun
* All of the Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida west coast from north of the mouth of the Suwanee River to
Indian Pass
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* East coast of the Florida Peninsula south of the St. Lucie/Indian
River County Line southward to Flamingo
* Coast of Georgia and South Carolina from north of the mouth of the
St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests in the remainder of Florida and the northwestern Bahamas
should monitor the progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was located
near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 88.9 West. Milton is moving
toward the east-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the
east-northeast and northeast is expected today and Wednesday. On
the forecast track, the center of Milton is forecast to move just
north of the Yucatan Peninsula today and approach the west coast of
the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday. The hurricane is forecast to
make landfall in Florida Wednesday night.
Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher
gusts. Milton is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. While fluctuations in
intensity are expected, Milton is forecast to remain an extremely
dangerous hurricane through landfall in Florida.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 924 mb (27.29 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml
STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4
to 6 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL...10-15 ft
Tampa Bay...10-15 ft
Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...6-10 ft
Charlotte Harbor...6-10 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-10 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...4-7 ft
Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft
Sebastian Inlet, FL to Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL...2-4 ft
Altamaha Sound, GA to Edisto Beach, SC...2-4 ft
Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft
St. Johns River...2-4 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm
Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.
RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 12 inches, with localized totals
up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of
the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the
risk of life-threatening flash, urban and aerial flooding along
with moderate to major river flooding.
Milton will also produce rainfall totals 2 to 4 inches across the
Florida Keys through Thursday. In addition, rainfall amounts of 2
to 4 inches with isolated totals around 6 inches are expected across
northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring in the warning area in
Mexico today. Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch areas
in Mexico today, and tropical storm conditions are expected to
continue in tropical storm warning area today.
Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area on the west
coast of Florida as early as Wednesday afternoon, with tropical
storm conditions beginning early Wednesday. Hurricane conditions
could begin along the east coast of Florida in the watch areas on
Wednesday night, with tropical storm conditions possible beginning
Wednesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the
tropical storm warning areas in Florida beginning early Wednesday
and will spread northward through the day. Tropical storm conditions
are possible within the watch area on the east coast of Florida by
Wednesday night and along the Georgia and South Carolina coasts on
Thursday.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over central and southern
Florida beginning late tonight and continuing through Wednesday
night.
SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to
affect much of the Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.