Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
700 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024
...NORTHERN EYEWALL OF MILTON STARTING TO SPREAD ONSHORE ALONG
THE FLORIDA GULF COAST...
...700 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
The northern eyewall of Hurricane Milton is beginning to move
onshore of the Florida gulf coast near Tampa and St. Petersburg
where an Extreme Wind Warning is now in effect. Please shelter in
place as these extremely dangerous hurricane-force winds overspread
the region.
A sustained wind of 61 mph (98 km/h) and a gust of 77 mph (124 km/h)
was recently reported at a WeatherFlow station at Egmont Channel. A
sustained wind of 44 mph (71 km/h) and a gust of 77 mph (124 km/h)
was recently reported at the Sarasota-Bradenton International
Airport. A sustained wind of 55 mph (89 km/h) and a gust of 71 mph
(114 km/h) was recently reported at a WeatherFlow station at Skyway
Fishing Pier.
Milton is being sheared and entraining dry air, and continues to weaken. At this point anyone in Florida needs to be in shelters, too late to do anything. Still lots of rotation in the thunderstorms in the vicinity of Very Beach and the south end east coasts.
For those north of the GA/FL border things look on track for this to not be a bad event.
On the other hand, there is a lot that can be said about the potential impacts in Georgia and South Carolina. What follows is a discussion of what is likely to happen, and what most people can expect to experience. It is a bit different from what you might be hearing as they are generally giving you the bad or worse case scenarios. Again recall that with any weather event isolated tragic events can happen. So even if it looks to be “not so bad” be careful, and again follow the advice of local emergency management, even if things turn out to be not so bad.
Most of the forecasts for the Georgia coast are showing much lower impacts than even 24 hours ago. Here is the neat slider thingee showing the GFS and ECM (European Model) forecasts for peak winds off the Georgia coast.
Although the area remains under a tropical storm warning, the Charleston WSFO has downgraded the forecasts for coastal flooding from “high impact” to “moderate impact”, and removed entirely any mention of rainfall flooding. Wind is now listed as a “minor impact” across the entire greater Frogmore metroplex (the coast from the Altamaha River to north of Charleston, including Hinesville/Ft. Stewart, Savannah, HHI, Beaufort, and Charleston, as well as the inland areas such as Statesboro). Max sustained winds other than right on the coast should remain under 20mph, and gusts should stay below 30 other than right on the beach and offshore. Ordinarily that wouldn’t be worth commenting on, but there is a lot of debris sitting around, and the infrastructure as well as trees and limbs weakened by Helene might come down. So some isolated to scattered power outages are again possible, but shouldn’t be extensive unless something breaks that shouldn’t.
So all in all, other than right on the beach where high surf, rip currents, and gusty winds are possible, Milton shouldn’t a big factor for GA and SC. Winds will be a big gustier and arrive earlier in the far south (Brunswick), weaker and later as you move north. In Savannah, winds should pick up around dawn tomorrow, peaking around 10 or 11am, and die off by sunset. Rain may come in after midnight, but current forecasts for for less that 1/2″. In Brunswick more rain is expected, starting this afternoon, and the winds start earlier (already picking up) and last longer (through Fri Morning), but still remain below tropical storm force.