NHC: Cone Shifts West


Heavy rainfall from Fred spreading over portions of Eastern and Central Cuba.

Here's the current position information:

LOCATION...22.3N 79.6W

ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSW OF CAIBARIEN CUBA

ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES

The government of Cuba has discontinued all Tropical Storm Watches in Cuba.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for The Florida Keys west of Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the southwest coast of Florida from Englewood south and east to Ocean Reef

Interests in the Bahamas, Cuba, and in the Florida peninsula and Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of Fred. Additional watches and warnings could be required for portions of the west coast of Florida and the Florida panhandle tonight or Saturday.

At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 79.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A west-northwestward motion is expected to begin overnight. A turn toward the northwest is expected on Saturday, and this general

motion should continue through early Monday. On the forecast track, Fred is expected to continue moving near the the north coast of central Cuba tonight, pass near or west of the lower Florida Keys on Saturday, and pass near or west of the west coast of the Florida peninsula Saturday night and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected tonight. After that, slow strengthening is forecast, and Fred could become a tropical storm again on Saturday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches).

Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:

Portions of Cuba...2 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. This rainfall may lead to scattered flash flooding.

Across the Bahamas...1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches.

Today through Monday, 3 to 6 inches of rain is anticipated across the Keys, southern and central Florida north towards the Big Bend, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding, and potentially worsen ongoing minor to isolated moderate river flooding over northern Florida.

From Sunday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into inland portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the area.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the warning area across the Florida Keys on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Florida beginning Saturday.

Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across portions of the Bahamas and the northern coast of Cuba through tonight. These swells could reach the Florida Keys and southern Florida by early Saturday and increase along the west coast of Florida Saturday night and Sunday.

There will be a risk of isolated tornadoes beginning Saturday afternoon over parts of central and south Florida.


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