Current Position: 795 miles SSW of Savannah
Max Sustained Winds: 75 mph
Movement: North at 7 mph
Current CEMA OPCON: 4
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 1100 AM EDT the center of Hurricane Michael was located near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 84.9 West. Michael is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected through Tuesday night, followed by a northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Michael will move northward near the western tip of Cuba this afternoon and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by tonight. Michael will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday and Tuesday night, and is expected to move inland over the Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday, and then move northeastward across the southeastern United States Wednesday night and Thursday.
Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Michael is forecast to become a major hurricane by Tuesday or Tuesday night.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km).
POTENTIAL LOCAL IMPACTS
• 50-60% probability of Tropical Storm Force Winds (39mph) as early as Wednesday morning.
• Anticipated rainfall: 4-6 inches.
• Coastal Flooding
• Marginal risk of flash flooding
• RIP Currents
• Isolated Tornados
• Beach erosion
Now is the time to prepare for the potential impacts Michael may have on our area.
• Residents are encouraged to prepare their residence and property.
• Ensure outside items which may be blown around/away by anticipated Tropical Storm Force winds are secured.
• Be prepared for downed trees and extended power outages.
• Have a supply of water, food, and essential medications.
• Have a family plan.