Hurricane Michael 12Noon Update

This is the 12:00 update on Hurricane Michael from the Liberty County Emergency Management Agency.

Currently Hurricane Michael is located 395 miles south of the Florida panhandle moving North at 12 MPH. Winds at this time have been measured at 100 MPH which makes it a category 2 storm on the Safford Simpson scale.

The system is expected to start affecting our area tomorrow night through Thursday. Impacts at this time, are possible sustained winds from 25-35 MPH with gusts of 45 MPH possible. Bands of rain from the storm may produce tornados which could form suddenly. Persons should remain vigilant to rapid changing conditions and limit outside travel and activities during that period. Rainfall amounts are expected to be from 2” – 3” which may produce some ponding on streets and roadways.

Timing of storm arrival is expected to co-incide with an abnormally high tide. Therefore, those persons on the coast and marine interest should

be prepared for minor flooding with North East winds limiting tide recedance.

Residents should take normal precautions by securing outside objects, checking batteries, fueling vehicles and monitoring local television and radio outlets for changes to the forecasts.

We continue to monitor the storm and will continue to post updates to this page, as well as, the main Liberty County webpage at Residents may call (912) 368-2202 for more information until 5:00 PM this afternoon and beginning at 6:00 AM tomorrow. Please remember not to call 911 except for emergencies and to share this Facebook update with others.

A little more than 24 hours from MICHAEL landfall. Florida evacuations continue as Panhandle residents get ready for a major hurricane. Storm surge is already starting with each tidal cycle along Florida’s Gulf Coast, Tampa 2.56’ anomaly and surge up to 13 feet in Apalachicola Bay expected, a very critical and sensitive coastline to storm surge.

Georgia’s Governor has issued a “State of Emergency” ahead of MICHAEL for South Georgia. Don’t panic; it reinforces the potential problems of MICHAEL and frees up the paperwork to get assets into those areas that will need the help. You need to be proactive in your planning and finish up for strong gusty winds and the potential for locally heavy rainfall inland.

WE worry about power outages. With the stronger winds, one limb falls and knocks out power for a neighborhood. I know our service-providers are on stand-by and any problems will not likely last very long. But let’s be safe. Have you got medications that need to stay refrigerated? Pack a cooler or make a deal with a neighbor who owns a generator. Be proactive.

MICHAEL is a Cat 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds moving N at 12 mph, pressure continues to fall at 965 mbs. The eye is 360 miles south of Panama City, 335 miles south of Apalachicola. Tropical storm watches extend now to Charleston with this advisory. Hurricane WARNINGS for the Florida Panhandle and SW Georgia, Tropical Storm WARNING into South Central Georgia.

Note MICHAEL will become a Major Hurricane, Cat 3 at 111 mph. Expect that with the next advisory as the Hunters report the storm is still strengthening. No changes in rainfall forecast, still 4-8” up to 12” locally across Florida and Georgia, the threat of tornadoes late tonight and tomorrow, SPC in Norman is watching for those rotations in the outer bands, already approaching Central Florida.

Good agreement on the models up to landfall, the curve to the northeast tomorrow as Michael gets embedded in the westerlies of the approaching trough from the Plains. No changes there but both the GFS and ECMWF have slowed down MICHAEL just a bit after landfall on Wednesday and the official forecast track reflects this, rainfall models will catch up on the next dataset.

A couple of don’ts: Don’t compare MICHAEL to any other storm (as is the rage on FB right now), each storm is different; don’t panic, finish your preps and be ready for a noisy night Wednesday night, and this will end quickly with a better weekend forecast; and don’t forget to get the “missiles” out of your yard, those things that will fly with the stronger winds and hurt something.

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