Michael is now a dangerous CATEGORY 4 hurricane

FROM CHATHAM EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT

A Tropical Storm Warning alert has been issued for Coastal Chatham by NWS Charleston (the Southern end of South Carolina and Eastern Georgia)....

TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT... * WIND - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind - Peak Wind Forecast: 25-35 mph with gusts to 45 mph - POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for wind 58 to 73 mph - The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Plan for dangerous wind of equivalent strong tropical storm force due to possible forecast changes in track, size, or intensity. - PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect life and property should be completed as soon as possible. Prepare for significant wind damage. - ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight objects become dangerous projectiles. - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban or heavily wooded places. A few bridges and access routes impassable. - Travel by vehicle or on foot increasingly difficult. Danger of death or injury from falling objects such as trees or electric wires outside. - Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent in areas with above ground lines, which could persist for hours or days. - Some poorly secured small craft could break loose from their moorings. * STORM SURGE - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Localized storm surge possible - Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for up to 2 feet above ground somewhere within surge prone areas - Window of concern: through Friday morning - POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for storm surge flooding greater than 1 foot above ground - The storm surge threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Shelter against storm surge flooding greater than 1 foot above ground. - PREPARE: All flood preparations should be complete. Expect flooding of low-lying roads and property. - ACT: Stay away from storm surge prone areas. Continue to follow the instructions of local officials. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Unfolding - Potential impacts from the main surge event are unfolding. * FLOODING RAIN - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: - Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional around 1 inch - POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for localized flooding rain - The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for localized flooding from heavy rain. - PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding. - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - Localized rainfall flooding could prompt a few rescues. - Rivers and tributaries could quickly rise with swifter currents. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches could become swollen and overflow in spots. - Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in normally vulnerable spots. Rapid ponding of water could occur at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds become near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and bridge closures. * TORNADO - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: - Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes - POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for a few tornadoes - The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for a few tornadoes. - PREPARE: If your shelter is particularly vulnerable to tornadoes, prepare to relocate to safe shelter before hazardous weather arrives. - ACT: If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter quickly. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - Isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans. - Isolated locations could experience tornado damage, along with power and communications disruptions. - In isolated locations, tornadoes could damage trees, vehicles, boats and buildings, especially mobile homes and other poorly constructed structures.

From Liberty County:

Winds (moderate confidence):o Tropical storm force wind gusts could occur within any showers/thunderstorms today through this evening. However, more frequent tropical storm force winds will most likely overspread the region from southwest to northeast later tonight into early Thursday morning and will continue Thursday. Sustained winds 20-40 mph and gusts 40-50 mph are possible, with strongest winds expected near the coast. Strong winds could persist into Thursday evening, especially across southeast South Carolinao Scattered to numerous downed trees/powerlines are likely which could produce power outages Tornadoes (moderate confidence):o A few tornadoes are possible this afternoon into Thursday afternoon. Expect Tornado Watches Rainfall (moderate confidence):o 3-5 inches inland and 2-3 inches near the coast likely through Thursday. Lesser amounts of one-half to one and one-half inches are expected south of Savannah along the I-95 corridoro Localized flooding possible, particularly near the coast, including downtown Charleston, around times of high tide through Thursday Coastal Flooding (high confidence):o Minor to moderate impacts during each high tide cycle through tonight. Major impacts are possible (low confidence) along the South Carolina coast around the time of the morning high tide Thursdayo Latest tide observations/forecasts: Charleston Harbor / Ft. Pulaski Coastal Hazards (high confidence):o Life-threatening rip currents through Thursdayo High surf and elevated tides will produce some beach erosion around times of high tide

BULLETIN Hurricane Michael Advisory Number  15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018 400 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 MICHAEL STRENGTHENS FURTHER AS IT HEADS NORTHWARD TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.3N 86.5W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA ABOUT 130 MI...215 KM SW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect from South Santee River, South Carolina to Surf City, North Carolina.

The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued west of the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida * North of Fernandina Beach Florida to Surf City North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay * Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River * Surf City North Carolina to Duck North Carolina * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours.  Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case during the next 12 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Michael was located near latitude 28.3 North, longitude 86.5 West. Michael is moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north- northeast is expected this morning, with a turn toward the northeast expected this afternoon or tonight. A motion toward the northeast at a faster forward speed is forecast on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, the eye of Michael is expected to move ashore over the Florida Panhandle later today, move northeastward across the southeastern United States tonight and Thursday, and then move off the Mid-Atlantic coast away from the United States on Friday.
Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Michael is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible before landfall. After landfall, Michael should weaken as it crosses the southeastern United States.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). NOAA buoy 42039 to the northeast of the center recently reported sustained winds of 54 mph (85 km/h) and a wind gust of 63 mph (101 km/h).
The estimated minimum central pressure based on Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 943 mb (27.85 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Tyndall Air Force Base FL to Keaton Beach FL...9-13 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Tyndall Air Force Base FL...6-9 ft Keaton Beach FL to Cedar Key FL...6-9 ft Cedar Key FL to Chassahowitzka FL...4-6 ft Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area along the U.S. Gulf Coast today, with tropical storm conditions expected to begin during the next few hours.  Hurricane conditions will also spread well inland across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area during the next several hours, and are possible within the tropical storm watch area by that time.  Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area today.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward within the warning area along the southeast U.S. coast beginning tonight, and are possible in the watch area by late Thursday and Thursday night.
RAINFALL:  Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Friday...
Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, and portions of southwest and central Georgia...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods.
The remainder of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southern Virginia...3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods.
Florida Peninsula, eastern Mid Atlantic, southern New England coast...1-3 inches.
SURF:  Swells generated by Michael are affecting the coasts of the eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico, and will spread to portions of the northwestern and western Gulf of Mexico coast during the next day or so.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.
TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes will be possible across parts of the Florida Panhandle and the northern Florida Peninsula through this afternoon.  This risk will spread into parts of central and southern Georgia and southern South Carolina this afternoon and tonight.

FOR THE LOWCOUNTRY

WIND - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind - Peak Wind Forecast: 25-35 mph with gusts to 45 mph - POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for wind 58 to 73 mph - The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Plan for dangerous wind of equivalent strong tropical storm force due to possible forecast changes in track, size, or intensity. - PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect life and property should be completed as soon as possible. Prepare for significant wind damage. - ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight objects bec ome dangerous projectiles. - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban or heavily wooded places. A few bridges and access routes impassable. - Travel by vehicle or on foot increasingly difficult. Danger of death or injury from falling objects such as trees or electric wires outside. - Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent in areas with above ground lines, which could persist for hours or days. - Some poorly secured small craft could break loose from their moorings. *

 STORM SURGE - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Localized storm surge possible - Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for up to 2 feet above ground somewhere within surge prone areas - Window of concern: through Friday morning - POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for storm surge flooding greater than 1 foot above ground - The storm surge threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Shelter against storm surge flooding greater than 1 foot above ground. - PREPARE: All flood preparations should be complete. Expect flooding of low-lying roads and property. - ACT: Stay away from storm surge prone areas. Continue to follow the instructions of local officials. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Unfolding - Potential impacts from the main surge event are unfolding. * 

FLOODING RAIN - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: - Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional around 1 inch - POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for localized flooding rain - The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for localized flooding from heavy rain. - PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding. - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - Localized rainfall flooding could promp t a few rescues. - Rivers and tributaries could quickly rise with swifter currents. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches could become swollen and overflow in spots. - Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in normally vulnerable spots. Rapid ponding of water could occur at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds become near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and bridge closures. 

* TORNADO - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: - Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes - POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for a few tornadoes - The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for a few tornadoes. - PREPARE: If your shelter is particularly vulnerable to tornadoes, prepare to relocate to safe shelter before hazardous weather arrives. - ACT: If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter quickly. - PO TENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - Isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans. - Isolated locations could experience tornado damage, along with power and communications disruptions. - In isolated locations, tornadoes could damage trees, vehicles, boats and buildings, especially mobile homes and other poorly constructed structures. * FOR MORE INFORMATION: - https://weather.gov/chs - https://ready.gov/hurricanes - http://www.bcgov.net


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