ISAIAS is a little stronger (70 mph winds) and a little faster (NW at 9 mph).
Georgia's Tropical Storm WATCH continues.
The forecast track has pushed east a little bit, farther away from Savannah.
Passing right by Tybee about 3pm Monday, impacts done by dinner time Monday.
Nationally, the interest in ISAIAS has turned to the Carolinas with a landfall expected just north of Myrtle Beach at 2am Tuesday. And a Hurricane WATCH has been issued "just in case" ISAIAS can strengthen over the Gulf Steam in a brief opportunity passing Charleston.
STATS: 70 mph winds, NNW at 9 mph, pressure 994 mb, 65 miles SE of Cape Canaveral, 302 miles SSE from Savannah, 410 miles south of Myrtle Beach. Tropical-storm-force winds extend in the right semicircle away from land some 105 miles.
Now, let's focus on our timeline for tomorrow. Tybee has not changed, but downtown has, reflecting the passage of ISAIAS farther the east. I showed this yesterday, numbers are not as threatening and the timing is much more focused for your plans tomorrow:
Mon 11a E 11 mph
12n E 13
1p E 13
2p E 14
3p NE 14
4p NE 14
5p NE 15 Gusting to 29
6p N 16
7p N 16
Rainfall total - 2.11" thru Monday 7p
Winds diminish after 8pm. Note the rain total is almost an inch higher, heaviest rainbands between 2p-6pm.
• Rip Currents and High Surf
• Beach Erosion is possible
• Windy Conditions (30-40mph, gusts to 50mph) are possible near the coast including the islands
• Breezy Conditions with gusts of Tropical Storm force winds (30-40mph winds) are possible in other areas of Chatham County
• Coastal Flooding possible
• Rainfall, 1”-3” – Starting as early as Sunday evening
• Tornadoes – Isolated tornadoes possible
Potential Local Conditions:
• Sunday PM- Rainfall may begin
• Monday AM – Breezy Conditions begin, Rain
• Monday Mid-Day – Wind gusts increase (40mph on the Islands), Rain
• Monday Afternoon – Wind gusts increase (50mph on the Islands), Rain
• Monday Evening – Windy. Heavy Rain. Evening high tide may be elevated depending on the timing of the expected heavy rains.
• Monday Night – System should be clearing our area and conditions improving by midnight.
Take the time this evening to secure loose items outside of your home to prepare for high winds and rain beginning Monday morning.
Tropical Storm Isaias Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 02 2020
...ISAIAS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT REACHES
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM E OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM S OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward to Fenwick
Island Delaware, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. A
Tropical Storm Warning has also been issued for the Chesapeake Bay
from Smith Point southward.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to Cape Fear North Carolina
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Cape Fear to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Surf City North Carolina
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sebastian Inlet Florida to Fenwick Island Delaware
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay southward from Smith Point
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Fenwick Island Delaware northward to Watch Hill Rhode Island
* Chesapeake Bay north of Smith Point
* Tidal Potomac River
* Delaware Bay
* Long Island and Long Island Sound
Interests elsewhere along the northeast coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional watches or
warnings may be required tonight or early Monday.
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was
located by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 28.5
North, longitude 79.8 West. Isaias is moving toward the
north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the north and
north-northeast along with an increase in forward speed is
anticipated on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the
center of Isaias will pass just to the east of the Florida east
coast through tonight. The center of Isaias will then move offshore
of the coast of Georgia and southern South Carolina on Monday, move
inland over eastern South Carolina or southern North Carolina Monday
night and move along the coast of the mid-Atlantic states on
Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some fluctuations in strength are possible during the next
36 hours, but Isaias is expected to be a strong tropical storm when
it reaches the coast of eastern South Carolina or southern North
Carolina Monday night. Slow weakening is forecast after Isaias
makes landfall in the Carolinas and moves across the U.S.
mid-Atlantic region late Monday and Tuesday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. A 51 mph (82 km/h) wind gust was recently
measured at NOAA buoy 41009, just off the coast of Cape Canaveral.
NOAA buoy 41010, located about 130 miles (210 km) east-northeast of
Cape Canaveral reported sustained winds of 49 mph (79 km/h) with a
wind gust to 63 mph (101 km/h) within the past couple of hours.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).