ELSA's current stats: the Tropical Storm has max winds at 60 mph, moving WNW still at 13 mph, now 50 miles north of Kingston, pressure holding at 1009 mb. Tropical Storm WARNINGS have now been issued for the Lower Keys, Tropical Storm WATCHES for the Upper Keys and for the Southwest Florida coast up to Bonita Beach.
Tropical Storm ELSA is passing just north of Jamaica with better organization and the potential to strengthen. None of the intensity models think that we will see a hurricane again, but that's possible if the track keeps ELSA just south of Cuba before crossing into the Florida Straits later tonight, or if ELSA stays over the Eastern Gulf longer up the West Coast of Florida Monday/Tuesday.
None of the intensity models think that we will see a hurricane again, but that's possible if the track keeps ELSA just south of Cuba before crossing into the Florida Straits later tonight, or if ELSA stays over the Eastern Gulf longer up the West Coast of Florida Monday/Tuesday.
And that's the problem: WHERE? The consensus is for some kind of storm to cross Cuba with only three real options:
1) heading up the West Coast of Florida making landfall sometime Tuesday and tracking across Florida into SE Georgia, riding parallel to the Georgia Coast into South Carolina;
2) heading more quickly into Florida, maybe near Tampa and riding up the Peninsula tracking right along the Georgia coast into South Carolina;
3) heading into South Florida and moving back out into the Atlantic riding up the East Coast of Florida, missing Georgia and making another landfall in South Carolina.
The favored option by most of the models is Option 2 (or some version of that scenario). The American model, which has been right so far, favors Option 1. The next 24 hours hold the keys to the Keys on Monday.
Either way, expect a BIG rain event with tropical-storm-force winds.
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 76.8W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM N OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Florida Keys from
Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas.
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Florida Keys from
Craig Key eastward to Ocean Reef, including Florida Bay.
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the southwest coast of
Florida from Flamingo northward to Bonita Beach.
The Tropical Storm Warning for Haiti has been discontinued.
The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the
provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, and Havana.
The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
province of Artemisa.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin,
Las Tunas, Santiago de Cuba, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa
Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, and Havana
* Jamaica
* The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin,
Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cayman Brac and Little Cayman
* The Cuban province of Artemisa
* The Florida Keys from east of Craig Key to Ocean Reef
* Florida Bay
* The southwest coast of Florida from Flamingo to Bonita Beach
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
Interests elsewhere in the Florida peninsula should monitor the
progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings will likely be
required later today.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was
located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 76.8 West. Elsa is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest is expected today or tonight. On the
forecast track, Elsa will continue to move near Jamaica and portions
of eastern Cuba today, and approach central Cuba tonight and early
Monday. Elsa is expected to move across central and western Cuba
and head toward the Florida Straits on Monday and pass near the
Florida Keys late Monday. Elsa is then forecast to move near or
over portions of the west coast of Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is possible today and tonight as Elsa approaches
the south-central coast of Cuba. However, gradual weakening is
forecast to occur on Monday when Elsa moves across Cuba. After Elsa
emerges over the Florida Straits and the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico, some slight restrengthening is possible.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of Jamaica
today. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane
conditions are possible in portions of eastern and central Cuba
later today and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in
the warning area in the Florida Keys by late Monday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the watch areas in the Cayman
Islands by tonight, and in the upper Florida Keys and the southwest
coast of Florida by Monday night.
STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal
tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore
flow within the hurricane watch and warning areas...
Southern coast of Cuba...3 to 5 feet
The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Bonita Beach, FL to Flamingo, FL...1 to 3 ft
Ocean Reef, FL to Dry Tortugas including Florida Bay...1 to 2 ft
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
RAINFALL: Across portions of southern Haiti and Jamaica, storm
total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with isolated total amounts of 15
inches are expected through today. This rain may lead to scattered
flash flooding and mudslides, some of which could be significant.
Across portions of Cuba today into Monday, rainfall of 5 to 10
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This
will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides.
Across the Cayman Islands today into Monday, rainfall of 3 to 5
inches is expected. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding.
Rainfall from Elsa will impact portions of the Florida Keys and
Florida Peninsula Monday through Wednesday. Amounts of 2 to 4 inches
with localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches will be possible,
which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding.
SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward along the coast
of Jamaica and the southern coast of Cuba during the next day or
two. Swells will increase near the Florida Keys and south Florida
early next week. Please consult products from your local weather
office for more details.