We are under a Tropical Storm WARNING and Flood Watch. Hurricane IDALIA is picking up speed and intensity coming northward parallel to Florida's Gulf Coast as a Category 2 Hurricane with 100 mph winds.
What can we expect? Wind and rain, and still some questions on the exact track of IDALIA, wobbling more to the left (west) over the past several model runs.
The storm will generate 30-35 mph winds sustained from Wednesday afternoon to Thursday morning, gusts around 40. Stronger winds along the coast at HHI, Tybee and Brunswick, where IDALIA might still be a weak hurricane passing Brunswick tomorrow morning.
Tornadoes, buried in the the strong rain bands, is also a possibility. They can do some quick damage, so stay weather alert and listen for the sirens. Rainfall will be heaviest farther inland west of I-95, 3-4 inches in Savannah, some localized five inch totals possible. That's the Flood Watch and expect urban and small stream flooding in the usual places.
The National Hurricane Center believes the storm surge for Georgia, which was 2-4' but with the more inland track, maybe 1-2' at best. However, storm surge is still forecast for the SC coast. There will be some coastal salt water flooding.
The track has shifted 25 miles west (to the left) and may continue that trend. As for winds, Brunswick will see them at 8am and Savannah now as early as 2pm. Remember the Talmadge Bridge closes to cars at 2pm.
AND EXPECT POWER OUTAGES with the tropical-storm-force winds capable of knocking down big limbs and trees may topple with rain-soaked soils.
Consider using your phone to videotape each room's contents in case you have any damage. Also stay in shoes during the bad weather in case a window gets broken from flying debris! Remove anything outside your home that could become a projectile in a strong wind gust.
Hurricane Idalia Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
500 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023
...IDALIA NOW A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM S OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Hurricane Watch has been issued from the mouth of the St. Mary's
River northward to Edisto Beach.
A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Beaufort Inlet to Drum
Inlet, North Carolina, as well as the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers.
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from South Santee River
northward to Surf City, North Carolina. A Tropical Storm Watch has
been issued north of Surf City to the North Carolina/Virginia
border, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds.
The Hurricane Watch from Englewood to the Middle of Longboat Key
has been discontinued.
The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued south of Bonita Beach,
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Englewood northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Middle of Longboat Key northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dry Tortugas Florida
* Chokoloskee northward to the Middle of Longboat Key
* West of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach
* Sebastian Inlet Florida to South Santee River South Carolina
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Bonita Beach northward to Englewood, including Charlotte Harbour
* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River South
* Beaufort Inlet to Drum Inlet North Carolina
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers North Carolina
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Edisto Beach South Carolina
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Lower Florida Keys west of the west end of the Seven Mile Bridge
* North of Surf City North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Additional warnings will likely be required tonight or on Wednesday.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Idalia was located
near latitude 26.1 North, longitude 84.8 West. Idalia is moving
toward the north near 16 mph (26 km/h). A northward to
north-northeastward motion is expected through tonight, with
Idalia's center forecast to reach the Big Bend coast of Florida on
Wednesday morning. After landfall, the center of Idalia is
forecast to turn toward the northeast and east, moving near or
along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina
late Wednesday and Thursday.
Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155
km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and
Idalia is expected to become a major hurricane tonight before it
reaches the Big Bend coast of Florida. Idalia is likely to still
be a hurricane while moving across southern Georgia, and possibly
when it reaches the coast of Georgia or southern South Carolina on
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
The minimum central pressure based on reconnaissance data is 972 mb