With heavy rain in our future, some areas are already making changes in the school schedule. So far: Long County Schools will delay opening for the school year until Thursday. Wayne County School District will delay students first day of school until Thursday. The original start date was Wednesday. All schools and offices will be closed for employees on Monday. As for schools in the Coastal Empire and Lowcountry we are awaiting updates and will share when we receive them.
Passing along information from ENKI RESEARCH which among other things works with governments around the world and has an impressive accuracy record in terms of watching and documenting storms and their progress. In their latest email they write:
The most likely case is shown by the official track and global models: the storm will reach the coast near or over the Savannah area and stall for 48 to 72 hours. It won’t be very strong by then – most likely a minimal tropical storm. The problem isn’t going to be wind (although some thunderstorm wind gusts might knock down limbs, and the odd weak tornado or two can’t be ruled out). The problem is going to be rain. Here we face three broad scenarios:
Scenario A: This is the NHC scenario. The storm hugs the coast close enough to stay organized enough to pump an epic amount of rain into Savannah and the SC Lowcountry. What is epic? This is the current estimate from NOAA:
Scenario B: The storm moves a bit farther offshore and remains organized. That might keep the core of the storm far enough out to put the Georgia coast in a drier zone. Bad for South Carolina, because unless the storm ejected north offshore, Charleston would likely see a stronger tropical storm, and SC would bear the brunt of the rain. This is possible, both GFS and ECM have shown this at times.
Scenario C: The storm stays far enough inland so that it decays and loses organization. That could easily drop the rain totals by half.
If I had to lay odds, I’d say “A” is at 70%, “B” at maybe 5%, and “C” at 25%. It will be late Monday before we know which way things are going.
But don’t count on “B” or “C” – expect lots of local flooding. All of the spots that flooded during the heavy rain episodes last month will probably see at least that bad and likely a bit worse over the next four days. Travel around the area will be really hazardous, so just stay home if you can, especially as we get in to Tuesday and Wednesday if the forecast verifies.
As for the coast, it all depends on the onshore winds, and that depends a lot on how much and how quickly the storm decays. It looks like the greatest potential for shallow coastal flooding will be during the high tide cycles on Wednesday. Continuing to watch that.
For Savannah, conditions will deteriorate over night and by Monday morning we will be having 20mph winds gusting to 30 or so, with thunderstorms and rain. Winds will probably peak around 9pm Tuesday night (25 or 30 gusting 35 to 40 for a couple hours), then back to the 20mph range probably through the end of the day Friday, all with thunderstorms and rain.
So to sum up for the GA/SC area, still looking at heavy rain and flooding as the biggest risk. Wind isn’t likely to be a huge problem, but the water logged trees are likely to shed limbs or worse and cause power outages and damage (looking at you, sweet gums!). Some weak tornadoes possible, stay alert for warnings. The usual spots will almost certainly go under, locals know the vulnerable spots so if you are new to the area ask around. DO NOT TRY TO DRIVE THROUGH WATER UNLESS YOU ARE ABSOLUTELY SURE YOU KNOW HOW DEEP IT IS! And even then think twice. we’ve all seen the pics of dead cars littering the sidewalks after these storms …
As their updated information is released we will share to give you a broad view of opinion as to where things are and where they may be going.
We are curently in a STORM SURGE WATCH meaning a threat from rising water moving inland from the coast is possible within the next 48 hours. We're also in a STORM WATCH. as well as a TROPICAL STORM WATCH meaning tropical storm force winds are possible within the next 48 hours including Greater Savannah and the South Carolina Lowcountry. And we are in a Flood Watch where excessive rainfall could cause flash flooding.
Beaufort County Opening Sandbag Filling Stations Ahead of Tropical Storm Debby
Beaufort County will operate two Sandbag Filling Stations available to residents ahead of the onset of Tropical Storm Debby. Upon arrival to the station, residents can see a Public Works employee to obtain free sandbags. Due to limited supply, sandbags are limited to 10 bags per resident.
Sandbag Filling Stations are located at:
9 Benton Field Road, Bluffton, SC
Hours of Operation:
Sunday August 4, 2024
1:00 p.m. – 5:00 p.m., or while supplies last
Bags and sand supplies are free, but limited and available on a first-come, first-serve basis, until we run out. Contractors will not be allowed to utilize this service.
As for today as of 11am here is the latest from the National Hurricane Center
11:00 AM EDT Sun Aug 4
Location: 27.0°N 84.3°W
Moving: NNW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 992 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph
...DEBBY LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY BEFORE LANDFALL IN THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION...
...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT LOOMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.0N 84.3W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SSW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from the middle of Longboat
Key to Aripeka, Florida including Tampa Bay.
The Tropical Storm Warning for the Florida Keys east of the Dry
Tortugas is discontinued.
The Tropical Storm Watch for the Florida Keys north of the Seven
Mile Bridge to the Channel 5 Bridge is discontinued.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Florida coast from the middle of Longboat Key northward to Indian
Pass including Tampa Bay
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida coast from Bonita Beach northward to the middle of
Longboat Key, including Charlotte Harbor
* Georgia and South Carolina coast from the Mouth of the St. Mary's
River to South Santee River South Carolina
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Florida coast from the Suwannee River to the Ochlockonee River
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Florida coast west of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass
* Florida coast south of the Suwannee River to Yankeetown
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dry Tortugas
* Florida coast south of the Suwannee River to East Cape Sable
* Florida coast west of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Florida coast west of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach
* Georgia and South Carolina coast from the Mouth of the St. Mary's
River to South Santee River South Carolina
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these
areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property
from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
Interests elsewhere in Florida and the southeastern coast of the
United States should monitor the progress of this system.
Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was
located near latitude 27.0 North, longitude 84.3 West. Debby is
moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn
toward the north is expected later today, followed by a slower
motion toward the northeast on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast
track, the center will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico
through tonight and reach the Florida Big Bend coast Monday morning.
Debby is then expected to move slowly across northern Florida and
southern Georgia Monday and Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast, and Debby is
expected to become a hurricane by tonight before it reaches the
Florida Big Bend coast. Weakening is expected on Monday and Tuesday
after Debby moves inland.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).
...DEBBY LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY BEFORE LANDFALL IN THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION...
...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT LOOMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.0N 84.3W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SSW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from the middle of Longboat
Key to Aripeka, Florida including Tampa Bay.
The Tropical Storm Warning for the Florida Keys east of the Dry
Tortugas is discontinued.
The Tropical Storm Watch for the Florida Keys north of the Seven
Mile Bridge to the Channel 5 Bridge is discontinued.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Florida coast from the middle of Longboat Key northward to Indian
Pass including Tampa Bay
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida coast from Bonita Beach northward to the middle of
Longboat Key, including Charlotte Harbor
* Georgia and South Carolina coast from the Mouth of the St. Mary's
River to South Santee River South Carolina
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Florida coast from the Suwannee River to the Ochlockonee River
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Florida coast west of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass
* Florida coast south of the Suwannee River to Yankeetown
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dry Tortugas
* Florida coast south of the Suwannee River to East Cape Sable
* Florida coast west of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Florida coast west of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach
* Georgia and South Carolina coast from the Mouth of the St. Mary's
River to South Santee River South Carolina
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these
areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property
from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
Interests elsewhere in Florida and the southeastern coast of the
United States should monitor the progress of this system.
Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was
located near latitude 27.0 North, longitude 84.3 West. Debby is
moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn
toward the north is expected later today, followed by a slower
motion toward the northeast on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast
track, the center will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico
through tonight and reach the Florida Big Bend coast Monday morning.
Debby is then expected to move slowly across northern Florida and
southern Georgia Monday and Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast, and Debby is
expected to become a hurricane by tonight before it reaches the
Florida Big Bend coast. Weakening is expected on Monday and Tuesday
after Debby moves inland.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).