Evacuations for some coastal areas of Florida are now underway as residents prepare for what is expected to be the most powerful storm to hit the United States in over a year.
Tropical Storm HELENE is expected to intensify over the next 36-48 hours into a Category 3, MAJOR hurricane, fueled by the extremely warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico.
Hurricane watches and warnings have been issued for the Gulf Coast of Florida, and forecasters predict that conditions will deteriorate over the next two days for an area that includes Tampa Bay, and a long stretch of the coast from Anclote River to Mexico Beach, Florida.
The storm track has apparently shifted slightly to the west.
Tropical Storm Helene Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
800 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024
...HELENE STRENGTHENING...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...19.8N 85.3W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Charlotte Harbor
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Mexico Beach, Florida
* Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
* Englewood to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dry Tortugas
* Lower and Middle Florida Keys west of the Channel 5 Bridge
* Flamingo to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* West of Mexico Beach to the Walton/Bay County Line
* Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche, Mexico
* Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Lake Okeechobee
* Palm Beach/Martin County Line northward to the Savannah River
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
Additional watches or warnings may be required for portions of
Florida and the southeastern United States tonight or on Wednesday.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was
located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 85.3 West. Helene is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest is expected later tonight, followed by a
general northward motion beginning on Wednesday and continuing
through Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Helene will
pass near the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula on
Wednesday, move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and
Thursday, and reach the Big Bend coast of Florida late Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Helene is
expected to become a hurricane on Wednesday. The storm is forecast
to rapidly strengthen over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and become a
major hurricane on Thursday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
to the east of the center.
The minimum central pressure based on Hurricane Hunter aircraft
observations is 991 mb (29.26 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Helene can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml
RAINFALL: Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
4 to 8 inches over western Cuba and the Cayman Islands with isolated
totals around 12 inches. Over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, 4 to 6
inches of rain are expected with isolated totals over 8 inches.
This rainfall brings a risk of considerable flooding.
Over the Southeastern U.S., Helene is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with isolated totals around 12
inches. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable
flash and urban flooding, with areas of significant river flooding
likely, including the risk of landslides in areas of steep terrain
in the southern Appalachians.